Reddit hivemind has predicted the winner of Euro 2016

Bad news for England. Again.

England Euro 2012
More misery Yep, you've guessed it - England are out. Image Christopher Lee/Getty Images

We all love a good football prediction.

With Euro 2016 about to begin, attention is quickly turning to who’s going to emerge victorious at the Paris final on July 10. Our oracle has already predicted a France victory and England quarter-final exit, while Football Manager went for a wildcard victory in the form of Wales.

But what about a mass “hivemind” group-think prediction?

Step forward Reddit. The social media site has put together a mass prediction taking in votes from more than 10,000 redditors on who they think will win the tournament.

“The idea that a group could successfully predict events intrigued me enough to look into starting an UNU [group ‘swarm intelligence’] for the Euros,” wrote onebyonebyone on r/soccer.

The test drew in thousands of votes to predict the winners in the first six games, and the overall Euros champion.

Onebyonebyone has also taken into account personal football expertise for each user, adding: “I’ve asked what leagues people follow simply so that it can be split into categories (Follows 5+ leagues closely, follows 4 leagues closely etc) if we want to look deeper into the data.”

There’s also the potential to running the hivemind throughout the entire tournament to adjust predictions based on how things progress.

“Hopefully we can do it for the rest of the tournament in 6 games bursts and also asking who people think will win the tournament,” they added. “As the tournament goes on predictions will change and hopefully get more and more accurate. We can follow along and see how well we do!”

So enough of the setup, what about the actual results?

  • France v Romania – 97.59% predict a France victory
  • Albania v Switzerland – 73.34% predict Switzerland win
  • Wales v Slovakia – Narrow, but 47.65% say Wales win
  • England v Russia – 70.56% say England victory
  • Poland v Northern Ireland – 73.48% go with Poland
  • Germany v Ukraine – A confident 95.76% go with Germany

When it comes to the overall winner, nobody can see past a win for hosts France. For England? Heroic failure and heartbreak in the semi-finals.

  • France – 3962 votes – 40.50%
  • Germany – 2857 votes 29.20%
  • England – 740 votes 7.56%
  • Spain – 701 votes – 7.17%
  • Belgium – 544 votes – 5.56%
  • Portugal – 247votes – 2.52%
  • Italy  – 230 votes – 2.35%
  • Croatia – 97 votes – 0.99%
  • Poland – 59 votes – 0.60%
  • Wales – 57 votes – 0.58%

So there you have it. The winners of Euro 2016 have been sorted.

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Loaded digital media manager Simon Reynolds has written about film and entertainment for various leading websites since 2008. Follow Simon at @simonreyn

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